קולוקוויום בחוג לגאופיזיקה: The Debate on Earthquake Rupture Predictability
Men-Andrin Meier, ETH Zurich
Do large earthquakes start a) faster, b) equally fast, or c) slower than smaller earthquakes? This question has wide-ranging implications for earthquake physics and Earthquake Early Warning systems - and seismologists have been arguing over it for at least three decades. With the thousands of large earthquakes that have occurred in this time period, in ever-denser seismic networks, one would think that a convincing answer should be easy to find. In practice, however, each one of the three listed possibilities have found support from recent observational studies. Why is this so hard?
In this talk I review recent studies on earthquake rupture predictability, and discuss observational limitations and methodological pitfalls for quantifying earthquake rupture growth statistics. I attempt to rank the different observational lines of evidence for and against earthquake rupture predictability, by considering how close they come to the ideal of perfectly objective raw data. I use this example debate to suggest how a stronger appreciation for observational biases and errors in earthquake seismology may help us answer some of our most controversial - and interesting - questions.
מארגני האירוע: ד"ר רועי ברקן וד"ר אסף ענבל